New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

[uk666]

New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

The rapid spread of a new variant of coronavirus has been blamed for the introduction of strict tier four mixing rules for millions of people, harsher restrictions on mixing at Christmas in England, Scotland and Wales, and other countries placing the UK on a travel ban.

So how has it gone from being non-existent to the most common form of the virus in parts of England in a matter of months?
The government's advisers on new infections have "moderate" confidence that it is more able to transmit than other variants. All the work is at an early stage, contains huge uncertainties and a long list of unanswered questions. Viruses mutate all the time and it's vital to keep a laser focus on whether the virus' behaviour is changing.

Why is this variant causing concern?
Three things are coming together that mean it is attracting attention:

1. It is rapidly replacing other versions of the virus
2. It has mutations that affect part of the virus likely to be important
3. Some of those mutations have already been shown in the lab to increase the ability of the virus to infect cells
4. All of these come together to build a case for a virus that can spread more easily.

However, we do not have absolute certainty. New strains can become more common simply by being in the right place at the right time - such as London, which had only tier two restrictions until recently.

But already the justification for tier four restrictions is in part to reduce the spread of the variant.

"Laboratory experiments are required, but do you want to wait weeks or months [to see the results and take action to limit the spread]? Probably not in these circumstances," Prof Nick Loman, from the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium, told the BBC

How far has it spread?
It is thought the variant either emerged in a patient in the UK or has been imported from a country with a lower ability to monitor coronavirus mutations.

The variant can be found across the UK, except Northern Ireland, but it is heavily concentrated in London, the South East and eastern England. Cases elsewhere in the country do not seem to have taken off.

Data from Nextstrain, which has been monitoring the genetic codes of the viral samples around the world, suggest cases in Denmark and Australia have come from the UK. The Netherlands has also reported cases.

Where has it come from?
The variant is unusually highly mutated. The most likely explanation is the variant has emerged in a patient with a weakened immune system that was unable to beat the virus. Instead, their body became a breeding ground for the virus to mutate.

Does it make the infection more deadly?
There is no evidence to suggest that it does, although this will need to be monitored. However, just increasing transmission would be enough to cause problems for hospitals. If the new variant means more people are infected more quickly, that would in turn lead to more people needing hospital treatment.

Will the vaccines work against the new variant?
Almost certainly yes, or at least for now.